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Fertility and women unemployment: new evidence from Türkiye

Economic Change and Restructuring · Aralık 2025

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YÖKSİS Kayıtları
Fertility and women unemployment: new evidence from Türkiye
Economic Change and Restructuring · 2025 SSCI
ARAŞTIRMA GÖREVLİSİ DUYGU DÜNDAR ÖZTAŞÇI →

Makale Bilgileri

DergiEconomic Change and Restructuring
Yayın TarihiAralık 2025
Cilt / Sayfa58
DOI10.1007/s10644-025-09934-8
Scopus ID2-s2.0-105018702325
Özet This study investigates the intricate relationships between economic variables, labor market conditions, and fertility rates in Türkiye from 1991 to 2022. By focusing on key factors, such as female unemployment, inflation, income levels, infant mortality rate, life expectancy, and urbanization, we aim to uncover their influence on the total fertility rate. Utilizing data from the World Development Indicators, we applied two advanced econometric techniques—Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares (KRLS) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO)—which offer enhanced efficiency over standard regression methods. To address potential endogeneity issues and verify the robustness of our findings, we employed the two-stage least squares instrumental variables (IV-2SLS) and instrumental LASSO (IV LASSO) methods. Our analysis shows that prior fertility rates significantly shape subsequent rates, whereas female unemployment hurts total fertility rates. Infant mortality rates have a positive effect on fertility, whereas inflation negatively affects fertility. Although per capita income has a comparatively weak negative effect, urbanization has a more pronounced negative effect. Notably, our findings indicate that pronatalist rhetoric and life expectancy at birth do not significantly influence fertility rate. Projections suggest a continued decline in fertility within Türkiye, and our results remain robust across various instrumental variables. This study supports modernization theory and underscores the limited effectiveness of pronatalist rhetoric in reversing downward fertility trends.

Yazarlar (3)

1
Zehranur Sanioğlu-Tanış
ORCID: 0000-0003-1241-7463
2
Duygu Dündar-Öztaşçı
ORCID: 0000-0003-3917-9653
3
Ibrahim Özmen
ORCID: 0000-0003-2632-4217

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic and sociodemographic variables Non-linearity Türkiye total fertility Women unemployment

Kurumlar

Ankara Üniversitesi
Ankara Turkey
Selçuk Üniversitesi
Selçuklu Turkey

Sistemimizdeki Yazarlar

İÖ
İBRAHİM ÖZMEN
DOÇENT

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