Scopus
🔓 Açık Erişim YÖKSİS Eşleşti
A genetic programming-based ensemble method for long-term electricity demand forecasting
Peerj Computer Science · Ocak 2025
YÖKSİS Kayıtları
A genetic programming-based ensemble method for long-term electricity demand forecasting
PeerJ Computer Science · 2025 SCI-Expanded
PROFESÖR MEHMET ÇUNKAŞ →
A genetic programming-based ensemble method for long-term electricity demand forecasting
PeerJ Computer Science · 2025 SCI-Expanded
DOKTOR ÖĞRETİM ÜYESİ HASAN HÜSEYİN ÇEVİK →
Makale Bilgileri
DergiPeerj Computer Science
Yayın TarihiOcak 2025
Cilt / Sayfa11
Scopus ID2-s2.0-105003458984
Erişim🔓 Açık Erişim
Özet
This study introduces a novel genetic programming-based ensemble method for forecasting long-term electricity consumption in Ethiopia. The technique utilizes a two-stage ensemble approach to project Ethiopia’s electricity consumption through 2031. In the initial stage, genetic algorithms, particle swarm optimization, and simulated annealing methods are applied to various regression models (linear, quadratic, and exponential). The preliminary forecast values generated in this stage were further refined in the second stage. Here, the genetic programming method was utilized to develop a formula based on the initial forecast values, which then provided the final forecast results. The most accurate predictions in the first stage were obtained using the GA_Quadratic, PSO_Quadratic, and SA_Quadratic methods, resulting in mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values of 3.61, 3.63, and 4.68, respectively. In the second stage, the GP-based prediction achieved an even lower MAPE value of 2.83. Other error metrics, including MSE, root mean square error (RMSE), and R<sup>2</sup>, were also evaluated, with the proposed model outperforming all methods from the first stage on these metrics. The study projected Ethiopia’s total annual electricity consumption through 2031 under two different scenarios. Both scenarios indicate that by 2031, electricity consumption will have tripled compared to 2021 levels.
Yazarlar (4)
1
Hayat Ahmed Issa
2
Hasan Hüseyin Çevik
3
Ahmet Yilmaz
4
Mehmet Çunkaş
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ensemble method
Genetic algorithms
Genetic programming
Long-term electricity demand
Particle swarm optimization
Simulated annealing
Kurumlar
Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi
Karaman Turkey
Selçuk Üniversitesi
Selçuklu Turkey
Metrikler
1
Atıf
4
Yazar
6
Anahtar Kelime