Scopus
🔓 Açık Erişim YÖKSİS Eşleşti
Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model
BMC Veterinary Research · Aralık 2021
YÖKSİS Kayıtları
Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model
BMC Veterinary Research · 2021 SCI-Expanded
DOÇENT BURAK MAT →
Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model
BMC Veterinary Research · 2021 SCI-Expanded
DOÇENT MUSTAFA BAHADIR ÇEVRİMLİ →
Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model
BMC VETERINARY RESEARCH · 2021 SCI-Expanded
DOKTOR ÖĞRETİM ÜYESİ HARUN YONAR →
Makale Bilgileri
DergiBMC Veterinary Research
Yayın TarihiAralık 2021
Cilt / Sayfa17
Scopus ID2-s2.0-85114405952
Erişim🔓 Açık Erişim
Özet
Background: Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes. Results: Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model’s predictions on the disease’s course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal. Conclusion: Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.
Yazarlar (6)
1
Burak Mat
ORCID: 0000-0002-0455-8736
2
Mehmet Saltuk Arikan
ORCID: 0000-0003-4862-1706
3
Ahmet Cumhur Akin
ORCID: 0000-0003-3732-0529
4
Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli
ORCID: 0000-0001-5888-242X
5
Harun Yonar
6
Mustafa Agah Tekindal
ORCID: 0000-0002-4060-7048
Anahtar Kelimeler
Epidemiology
Lumpy Skin Disease
production losses
SEIR Model
Turkey
Kurumlar
Burdur Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi
Burdur Turkey
Firat Üniversitesi
Elazig Turkey
İzmir Kâtip Çelebi Üniversitesi
Izmir Turkey
Selçuk Üniversitesi
Selçuklu Turkey
Metrikler
10
Atıf
6
Yazar
5
Anahtar Kelime