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SCI-Expanded JCR Q4 Özgün Makale Scopus
Modeling and forecasting of milk production in different breeds in Turkey
Indian Journal of Animal Sciences 2022 Cilt 92 Sayı 1
Scopus Eşleşmesi Bulundu
13
Atıf
92
Cilt
105-111
Sayfa
🔓
Açık Erişim
Scopus Yazarları: Mostafa Abotaleb, Abdullah Mohammad Ghazi Al Khatib, Tatiana Makarovskikh, Mustafa Çam, Harun Yonar, Aynur Yonar, Pradeep Mishra
Özet
Identification of milk production is one of the key activities for the Turkish economy in terms of providing economic income for dairy smallholders and meeting consumer demands. This study aims to predict milk production in Turkey using various time series models which are BATS, TBATS, Holt's Linear Trend, ARIMA models, and NNAR. Yearly data from 1991 to 2019 on Milk Production is used in this study. The best time series model is selected from the testing data set (2015 to 2019) based on the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results of this study showed that the best predicts are obtained for Culture purebred milk production by an ARIMA (1,2,1) model, for Crossbreed milk production by a TBATS Model, for Indigenous milk production by ARIMA (0,2,0) model for total milking cows' production by Holt's Linear Trend model. Furthermore, these models forecasted an increasing trend in the production of milk from 2020 to 2025. The percentage increases for culture purebred milk, Crossbreed milk production, and Indigenous milk production from 2020 to 2025 are projected to be 40, 20.9 and 10.9%, respectively. Overall, the total milking cows' production is projected to increase by 25% in 2025.
Anahtar Kelimeler (Scopus)
Forecasting Holt's Linear Trend ARIMA Milk production TBATS
Scimago Dergi Bilgisi Otomatik ISSN Eşleştirmesi 2022 yılı verileri
Indian Journal of Animal Sciences
Q3
SJR Quartile
0,196
SJR Skoru
29
H-Index
🔓
Açık Erişim
Kategoriler: Veterinary (miscellaneous) (Q3) · Animal Science and Zoology (Q4)
Alanlar: Agricultural and Biological Sciences · Veterinary
Ülke: India · Indian Council of Agricultural Research
Bu bilgiler makale yılına göre Scimago veritabanından ISSN eşleştirmesiyle otomatik getirilmektedir. Dergi sıralama verileri Scimago'nun ilgili yılı baz alınmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

ARIMA Forecasting Holt's Linear Trend Milk production TBATS

Makale Bilgileri

Dergi Indian Journal of Animal Sciences
ISSN 0367-8318
Yıl 2022 / 1. ay
Cilt / Sayı 92 / 1
Makale Türü Özgün Makale
Hakemlik Hakemli
Endeks SCI-Expanded
JCR Quartile Q4
Yayın Dili İngilizce
Kapsam Uluslararası
Toplam Yazar 7 kişi
Erişim Türü Basılı+Elektronik
Erişim Linki Makaleye Git
Alan Sağlık Bilimleri Temel Alanı Biyoistatistik ARIMA, Forecasting, Holt's Linear Trend, Milk production, TBATS

YÖKSİS Yazar Kaydı

Yazar Adı YONAR HARUN, YONAR AYNUR, Mishra Pradeep, Abotaleb MOSTAFA, GHAZI AL KHATIB ABDULLAH MOHAMMAD, MAKAROVSKIKH TATIANA, ÇAM MUSTAFA
YÖKSİS ID 6916371