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SCI-Expanded JCR Q1 Özgün Makale Scopus
Determination of production losses related to lumpy skin disease among cattle in Turkey and analysis using SEIR epidemic model
BMC VETERINARY RESEARCH 2021 Cilt 17 Sayı 300
Scopus Eşleşmesi Bulundu
10
Atıf
17
Cilt
🔓
Açık Erişim
Scopus Yazarları: Mehmet Saltuk Arikan, Ahmet Cumhur Akin, Burak Mat, Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli, Harun Yonar, Mustafa Agah Tekindal
Özet
Background: Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) is an infectious disease induced by the Capripoxvirus, causing epidemics in Turkey and several countries worldwide and inducing significant economic losses. Although this disease occurs in Turkish cattle every year, it is a notifiable disease. In this study, LSD in Turkey was modelled using the Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model, and production losses were estimated with predictions of the course of the disease. The animal population was categorized into four groups: Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, and Recovered, and model parameters were obtained. The SEIR model was formulated with an outbreak calculator simulator applied for demonstration purposes. Results: Production losses caused by the LSD epidemic and the SEIR model’s predictions on the disease’s course were evaluated. Although 1282 cases were identified in Turkey during the study period, the prevalence of LSD was calculated as 4.51%, and the mortality rate was 1.09%. The relationship between the disease duration and incubation period was emphasized in the simulated SEIR model to understand the dynamics of LSD. Early detection of the disease during the incubation period significantly affected the peak time of the disease. According to the model, if the disease was detected during the incubation period, the sick animal's time could transmit the disease (Tinf) was calculated as 2.66 days. Production loss from LSD infection was estimated at US $ 886.34 for dairy cattle and the US $ 1,066.61 for beef cattle per animal. Conclusion: Detection of LSD infection during the incubation period changes the course of the disease and may reduce the resulting economic loss.
Anahtar Kelimeler (Scopus)
Lumpy Skin Disease production losses Epidemiology SEIR Model Turkey

Anahtar Kelimeler

Lumpy Skin Disease production losses Epidemiology SEIR Model Turkey

Makale Bilgileri

Dergi BMC VETERINARY RESEARCH
ISSN 1746-6148
Yıl 2021 / 9. ay
Cilt / Sayı 17 / 300
Sayfalar 1 – 10
Makale Türü Özgün Makale
Hakemlik Hakemli
Endeks SCI-Expanded
JCR Quartile Q1
TEŞV Puanı 3,00
Yayın Dili Türkçe
Kapsam Uluslararası
Toplam Yazar 6 kişi
Erişim Türü Basılı
Alan Sağlık Bilimleri Temel Alanı Biyoistatistik

YÖKSİS Yazar Kaydı

Yazar Adı MAT BURAK, ARIKAN MEHMET SALTUK, AKIN AHMET CUMHUR, ÇEVRİMLİ MUSTAFA BAHADIR, YONAR HARUN, TEKİNDAL MUSTAFA AGAH
YÖKSİS ID 5818763

Metrikler

Scopus Atıf 10
JCR Quartile Q1
TEŞV Puanı 3,00
Yazar Sayısı 6