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ESCI Özgün Makale Scopus
Modeling and Forecasting for the number of cases of theCOVID-19 pandemic with the Curve Estimation Models,the Box-Jenkins and Exponential Smoothing Methods
Eurasian Journal of Medicine and Oncology 2020 Cilt 4 Sayı 2
Scopus Eşleşmesi Bulundu
61
Atıf
4
Cilt
160-165
Sayfa
🔓
Açık Erişim
Scopus Yazarları: Harun Yonar, Aynur Yonar, Mustafa Agah Tekindal, Melike Tekindal
Özet
Objectives: This study aims to provide statistical information summarizing the general structure about the effects and process of infection in all countries of the world in the light of the data obtained and to model the daily change of infection criteria. Methods: The number of COVID 19 epidemic cases of Turkey and the selected G8 countries, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russia, Canada, Japan between 1/22/2020 and 3/22/2020 has been estimated and forecasted in this study by using some curve estimation models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA) and Brown/Holt linear exponential smoothing methods. Results: Japan (Holt Model), Germany (ARIMA (1,4.0)) and France (ARIMA (0,1,3)) provide statistically significant but clinically unqualified results in this data set. UK (Holt Model), Canada (Holt Model), Italy (Holt Model), Turkey (ARIMA (1,4,0)) and Russia?? the results are more reliable. This is specified for the particular model used in this case Turkey. Conclusion: Certainly, more accurate evaluations can be made with more data in future studies. Nevertheless, since this study provides information about the levels at which the number of cases may extend in case that the current situation is not intervened, it can guide countries to take the necessary measures and to intervene it earlier.
Anahtar Kelimeler (Scopus)
Box-Jenkins COVID-19 SARS-CoV2 exponential smoothing methods

Anahtar Kelimeler

Box-Jenkins COVID-19 SARS-CoV2 exponential smoothing methods

Makale Bilgileri

Dergi Eurasian Journal of Medicine and Oncology
ISSN 2587-196X
Yıl 2020 / 1. ay
Cilt / Sayı 4 / 2
Sayfalar 160 – 165
Makale Türü Özgün Makale
Hakemlik Hakemli
Endeks ESCI
Yayın Dili İngilizce
Kapsam Uluslararası
Toplam Yazar 4 kişi
Erişim Türü Elektronik
Erişim Linki Makaleye Git
Alan Sağlık Bilimleri Temel Alanı- Biyoistatistik

YÖKSİS Yazar Kaydı

Yazar Adı YONAR HARUN,YONAR AYNUR,TEKİNDAL MUSTAFA AGAH,TEKİNDAL MELİKE
YÖKSİS ID 5213061