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SCI Özgün Makale Scopus
A new multistage short-term wind power forecast model using decomposition and artificial intelligence methods
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 2019 Cilt 534
Scopus Eşleşmesi Bulundu
51
Atıf
534
Cilt
Scopus Yazarları: Hasan Hüseyin Çevik, Mehmet Çunkaş, K. Polat
Özet
In this study, a new forecast model consist of three stages is proposed for the next hour wind power. In the first stage, wind speed, wind direction, and wind power have been forecasted by using historical data. Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) have been chosen as forecast methods, while Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Stationary Wavelet Decomposition (SWD) methods have been preferred as pre-processing methods. The other two stages have been used to improve the wind power forecast value obtained at the end of the first stage. In the second stage, the forecast values found in the first stage have been applied to the same forecast methods, and wind power forecast value has been updated. In the third stage, a correction process is applied, and the final forecast value is obtained. While four-year data are selected as train data, two-year data are tested. SWD-ANFIS has given the best results in the first stage while ANN has given the best result in the second stage. Finally, the ensemble result has been found by taking the weighted average of the results of the three methods. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values found at each stage are the 0.333, 0.294 and 0.278, respectively. The obtained results have been compared with literature studies. The results show that the proposed multistage forecast model is capable of wind power forecasting efficiently and produce very close values to the actual data.
Anahtar Kelimeler (Scopus)
Empirical Mode Decomposition Short-term wind power forecast Support Vector Regression Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Stationary Wavelet Decomposition
Scimago Dergi Bilgisi Otomatik ISSN Eşleştirmesi 2019 yılı verileri
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Q2
SJR Quartile
0,712
SJR Skoru
195
H-Index
Kategoriler: Condensed Matter Physics (Q2) · Statistics and Probability (Q2)
Alanlar: Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy
Ülke: Netherlands · Elsevier B.V.
Bu bilgiler makale yılına göre Scimago veritabanından ISSN eşleştirmesiyle otomatik getirilmektedir. Dergi sıralama verileri Scimago'nun ilgili yılı baz alınmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Empirical Mode Decomposition Short-term wind power forecast Support Vector Regression Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Stationary Wavelet Decomposition

Makale Bilgileri

Dergi Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
ISSN 03784371
Yıl 2019 / 11. ay
Cilt / Sayı 534
Makale Türü Özgün Makale
Hakemlik Hakemli
Endeks SCI
TEŞV Puanı 27,00
Yayın Dili İngilizce
Kapsam Uluslararası
Toplam Yazar 3 kişi
Erişim Türü Elektronik
Erişim Linki Makaleye Git
Alan Mühendislik Temel Alanı- Elektrik-Elektronik Mühendisliği

YÖKSİS Yazar Kaydı

Yazar Adı ÇEVİK HASAN HÜSEYİN,ÇUNKAŞ MEHMET,POLAT KEMAL
YÖKSİS ID 4042794

Metrikler

Scopus Atıf 51
TEŞV Puanı 27,00
Yazar Sayısı 3