Scopus Eşleşmesi Bulundu
51
Atıf
534
Cilt
Scopus Yazarları: Hasan Hüseyin Çevik, Mehmet Çunkaş, K. Polat
Özet
In this study, a new forecast model consist of three stages is proposed for the next hour wind power. In the first stage, wind speed, wind direction, and wind power have been forecasted by using historical data. Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) have been chosen as forecast methods, while Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Stationary Wavelet Decomposition (SWD) methods have been preferred as pre-processing methods. The other two stages have been used to improve the wind power forecast value obtained at the end of the first stage. In the second stage, the forecast values found in the first stage have been applied to the same forecast methods, and wind power forecast value has been updated. In the third stage, a correction process is applied, and the final forecast value is obtained. While four-year data are selected as train data, two-year data are tested. SWD-ANFIS has given the best results in the first stage while ANN has given the best result in the second stage. Finally, the ensemble result has been found by taking the weighted average of the results of the three methods. Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values found at each stage are the 0.333, 0.294 and 0.278, respectively. The obtained results have been compared with literature studies. The results show that the proposed multistage forecast model is capable of wind power forecasting efficiently and produce very close values to the actual data.
Anahtar Kelimeler (Scopus)
Empirical Mode Decomposition
Short-term wind power forecast
Support Vector Regression
Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Stationary Wavelet Decomposition
Scimago Dergi Bilgisi
Otomatik ISSN Eşleştirmesi
2019 yılı verileri
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Q2
SJR Quartile
0,712
SJR Skoru
195
H-Index
Kategoriler: Condensed Matter Physics (Q2) · Statistics and Probability (Q2)
Alanlar: Mathematics · Physics and Astronomy
Ülke: Netherlands
· Elsevier B.V.
Bu bilgiler makale yılına göre Scimago veritabanından ISSN eşleştirmesiyle otomatik getirilmektedir.
Dergi sıralama verileri Scimago'nun ilgili yılı baz alınmaktadır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Empirical Mode Decomposition
Short-term wind power forecast
Support Vector Regression
Artificial Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
Stationary Wavelet Decomposition
Makale Bilgileri
Dergi
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
ISSN
03784371
Yıl
2019
/ 11. ay
Cilt / Sayı
534
Makale Türü
Özgün Makale
Hakemlik
Hakemli
Endeks
SCI
TEŞV Puanı
27,00
Yayın Dili
İngilizce
Kapsam
Uluslararası
Toplam Yazar
3 kişi
Erişim Türü
Elektronik
Erişim Linki
Makaleye Git
Alan
Mühendislik Temel Alanı-
Elektrik-Elektronik Mühendisliği
YÖKSİS Yazar Kaydı
Yazar Adı
ÇEVİK HASAN HÜSEYİN,ÇUNKAŞ MEHMET,POLAT KEMAL
YÖKSİS ID
4042794
Hızlı Erişim
Metrikler
Scopus Atıf
51
TEŞV Puanı
27,00
Yazar Sayısı
3